Cosatu’s Prospects Of Avoiding A Split

Two Are Not Better Than One: Cosatu’s Prospects Of Avoiding A Split

In this report we look at Cosatu’s prospects of remaining united after its recent central executive committee meeting and will also examine the implications for the business environment. Does the ANC have the muscle and political skill to prevent a split in Cosatu?

  • We believe there is a real risk for Cosatu near term of losing a large proportion of their membership thus weakening the ANC to some degree.
  • Cosatu is likely to remain quite divided as internal issues play out with the ANC also playing an all important role is resolving internal issues.

If Vavi goes, the ANC will gain some support and have less of a basting in public although there is some support for Vavi to stay in power.  A split up of Cosatu will benefit almost no one and we believe an intact Cosatu is probably the best outcome.

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